Bottled Water and a Gallon of Gas: Using Systems Thinking to Reframe the Issue of Rising Prices.

Ok, a long title, and a bit cryptic again. However, you should be able to guess where this post is going by now. (That is, if you have read the previous two posts dealing with the idea of “reframing” in the context of organizational strategy, social change, and everyday personal experience and thought.)

First, there is this editorial from the New York Times that expounds on the effect of rising gas prices in the U.S. on environmental outcomes. Here is a brief excerpt:

Still, Americans’ response to rising gasoline prices makes an excellent case for a gas tax. It proves that drivers will change their behavior in response to high fuel prices. And even if Detroit doesn’t buy global warming, drivers can help persuade it to embrace fuel efficiency. They don’t even have to know that the Honda Civic emits less than half the 13 tons of greenhouse gases spewed by the Ford F-150.

So, rising gas prices not only have the effect of raising the price of food and other daily commodities, but also work to change the mindset of corporations and society toward environmental and ecological issues as well. We can promote the benefits of global sustainability all day long and never get the type of change necessary for long-term human betterment (i.e. avoiding overshoot and collapse scenarios), but… well, what is that old saying about money talking?

Here’s a similar article that deals with the movement toward drinking tap water over buying bottled water due to rising prices - which is in turn caused by the increased price of gasoline and the flailing economy:

The lousy economy may be accomplishing what environmentalists have been trying to do for years - wean people off the disposable plastic bottles of water that were sold as stylish, portable, healthier and safer than water from the tap.

Oh, how the times have changed - and how the market has changed them:

Chicago started a 5 cent tax on plastic water bottles in January. San Francisco has done away with deliveries of water jugs for office use, instead installing filters and bottle-less dispensers, and has banned the purchase of single-serving bottles by city employees with municipal funds. The city has already cut its government water budget in half, to $250,000 a year, said Tony Winnicker, spokesman for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. “It’s becoming chic to say, ‘Oh no, I don’t drink bottled water, I’ll have tap water,’ ” he said.

(Sidenote: Campaigns advertising the environmentally hazardous use of petroleum-based containers haven’t helped sales of products such as bottled water any either! Possible “popular meme” solution for this luxury item? How about the promotion of USDA ”BioPreferred” containers such as those created by Cereplast? )

So, gas prices rise, thus raising food prices, and then consumers stop spending so much on SUV’s and bottled water, which in turn forces companies to rethink (or “reframe”) their new product development, innovation, growth, and risk strategies (as well as strategic competencies and organizational purpose). This dynamic will ultimately affect everything from your corner “7-11″ (their purpose and vision) to your favorite drive through fast food restaurant (which is already having to reframe based on nutritional and dietary change in the American psyche and zeitgeist; what happens with less cars and consumers on the road?)

Now, if organizations had the foresight to utilize scenario development strategies, systems thinking, risk management processes, and horizon scanning…

BTW, what’s about to change in your world?

Image: Joe M500 (Flickr)

 

The Price of Gasoline: Reframing the Energy Issue Through Discovery of Causal Dynamics and Social Assumptions

   Ok, so that’s a fairly overstated title for the post that follows, but these are some of the things that I’ve been thinking about as of late while doing some research for a foresight project. And, when I read the Robert Bryce article entitled “Gasoline is Cheap,” it reminded me of how we can better understand change through reframing of emerging issues, and how we must recognize unexpected outcomes of these issues if we are to really grasp their significance. Further, we must understand the various developmental levels of important issues - such as the stories that frame them in the public consciousness (myth and metaphor), the manner in which those issues have been reduced by cultural assumptions and worldviews, etc, - if we are to react to them in transformative ways for human advancement.

Now, this particular issue deals with the public outrage at the rising price of oil (reflected at your local gas pump), and I love some of the history and outcomes that the author points out that are not considered by most in the media, public forum, or even those in policy development:

• Gas is cheap when measured on an inflation-adjustment basis. By these standards, it’s only slightly higher than it was in 1922! (At that time, gasoline cost the current -day equivalent of $3.11.)
• The ever-increasing global demand for oil makes the rising cost a necessity. During the first quarter of last year, China’s oil consumption alone jumped 16.5%!
• In 1975, gasoline was 33.4% of the total cost of car ownership. It is now only 17.1%
• Significant declines in U.S. oil consumption (and hopefully dependence) have historically taken place only after prolonged periods of “high prices.” Isn’t decline in consumption and dependence what we want? The only way to convince everyone that we must find alternative sources of energy is to make the present source unacceptable - whether environmentally or economically. (The second being a much bigger driver of social change than the first - sorry!)
• The price of gasoline outside the U.S.: Britain - $8.38/gallon; Norway - $8.73/gallon; only one of the 32 countries surveyed by the International Energy Agency had cheaper gasoline than the U.S. in 2007.
• A Starbucks Venti Latte is the equivalent of $23 a gallon! No one is complaining. (Well, they’re complaining, but in a “tongue-in-cheek” manner, all while standing in line.)
• Budweiser is the equivalent of $11 a gallon.

These last too stats are luxury items, but have become a type of “commom-place luxury” that most Americans don’t think twice about purchasing. My point is simply that reframing this (and other) issues through looking at the actual history, cultural assumptions, social factors, reductionist arguments, political agendas, etc. can lead us to new views, new ideas, and ultimately new solutions, innovations, and transformative actions.

So, what issue or situation do you need to reframe?

Image: A Siegel (Flickr)

The Strategy of Reframing: Organizational, Personal, Social, and Spiritual

      Over the last several days, I can’t seem to get the concept of reframing out of my mind, but that is by no means a bad thing. As a Futurist - working to help others question and realize their basic assumptions and views - it is one of the topics that intrigues me due to the speed of change in today’s environment (in every facet of life imaginable) and the need to develop the skill of “unlearning” as a tool to successfully engage opportunities and advance future aspirations. This covers areas as diverse as meeting the Millennium Development Goals to creating Opportunity Share in an organization for New Product Development to broadening one’s personal scope of thinking and actions in order to become a more productive global citizen. In other words, this topic could go on for awhile, because there’s alot I’d like to cover and discuss (albeit inbetween the other posts I’ve been planning over the last several days).

As Hughes and Beatty have noted:

“Reframing involves the ability to see things differently, including new ways of thinking about an organization’s strategic challenges and basic capabilities. It involves questoning or restating the implicit beliefs and assumptions that are often taken for granted by organization members. It plays a critical role in the formative phases of the strategic learning process from assessing where we are through learning how to get there.”

In other words, resilience in an organization (or life, or society, or group, etc.) requires the ability to reimagine the the core competencies, strengths, opportunities, threats, goals, and even purpose of the entity, and also must include the development of strategy that not only fits the discoveries, but also allows for new waves of reframing to take place on a continual basis. At the core of “reframing” is the idea that strategy is closely linked to “worldviews,” and the fact that we are likely to approach any situation through our own lens of “reality.” Of course, there is a level of inevitability to this human characteristic due to upbringing, social contexts, and connection to surroundings. However, human collective maturity requires that we move beyond our myopic ways of thinking and viewing, and globalization (economic, social, political, etc.) is a prime example of why this is vital. In this vein, Henry Mintzberg’s teaching on strategic planning and thinking could serve in understanding the concept of “reframing”:

“Mintzberg argues that strategy emerges over time as intentions collide with and accomodate a changing reality. Thus, one might start with a perspective and conclude that it calls for a certain position, which is to be achieved by way of a carefully crafted plan, with the eventual outcome and strategy reflected in a pattern evident in decisions and actions over time. This pattern in decisions defines what Mintzberg called ‘realized’ or emergent strategy.”

So, the concept of reframing can be extended to include life decisions, national and international policy creation, developing higher levels of action logics at work and in society, new product development in any business, faith communities, city planning - the list could go on and on.

Oh, and dealing with disruptions and discontinuties becomes much easier if reframing is part and parcel of any strategic thinking and planning process. Now that I’ve covered a bit of introduction to the concept, I hope to get more specific in terms of reframing topics and actual reframing events. Also, I welcome any discussion on the different personality types in regards to personal and corporate change dynamics (methodical and cautious vs. expansive and immediate) and the need for strategic planning vs. strategic thinking (both are important).

References:

Highes, R. L. & Beatty, C. B., (2005), Becoming a strategic leader, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Nickols, F., (2000), Strategy: Definitions and meaning. http://home.att.net/~nickols/strategy_definition.htm

Image: Bart (Flickr)

 

Pangea Day

Several nights ago, my sister and I were talking about our love of movies, and the power of film to inspire. If you know me at all, you know that I am driven by the “human element,” emotional, physical, and spiritual. My roots are in sociology, psychology, and theodynamics, and as a Professional Futurist, I am very concerned about the connection between driving forces (technological, environmental, economic, political, information, etc.) and social change - in both directions. (How one has an effect upon the other.) So, I am very excited about Pangea Day, being held May 10th. I look forward to watching the short films made by people from all over the world, dealing with the personal prespectives as well as the global web of human experience. I expect that thinking about individuals viewing these films at the same time I am seeing them will be a moving experience in itself, and I hope you will be watching as well.

You can view the films online, at hosted events in your locality, or at several major events worldwide. For information, visit the website here. For starters, I include this description from the website:

The Pangea Day Mission & Purpose

Pangea Day is a global event bringing the world together through film.

Why? In a world where people are often divided by borders, difference, and conflict, it’s easy to lose sight of what we all have in common. Pangea Day seeks to overcome that – to help people see themselves in others – through the power of film.

The Pangea Day Event

Starting at 18:00 GMT on May 10, 2008, locations in Cairo, Kigali, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, and Rio de Janeiro will be linked via satellite for a live program of powerful films, live music, and visionary speakers. The entire program will be broadcast – in seven languages – to millions of people worldwide through the internet, television, and mobile phones.

The 24 short films to be featured have been selected from an international competition that generated more than 2,500 submissions from over one hundred countries. The films were chosen based on their ability to inspire, transform, and allow us see the world through another person’s eyes. The winning films will be announced in late April.

The program will also include a number of exceptional speakers and musical performers. Queen Noor of Jordan, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, musician/activist Bob Geldof, and Iranian rock phenom Hypernova are among those taking part.

What Will Happen After Pangea Day

People inspired by Pangea Day will have the opportunity to participate in community-building activities around the world. Through the live program, the Pangea Day web site, and self-organized local events, everyday people will be connected with extraordinary activists and organizations.

Many of the films and performances seen on Pangea Day will be made available on the Web and via mobile phone, alongside open forums for discussion and ideas for how to take social action.

A Pangea Day documentary will be created to catalyze future activities, and dozens of talented filmmakers will make strides in their careers.

History

In 2006, filmmaker Jehane Noujaim won the TED Prize, an annual award granted at the TED Conference. She was granted $100,000, and more important, a wish to change the world. Her wish was to create a day in which the world came together through film. Pangea Day grew out of that wish. Watch Jehane Noujaim’s 2006 acceptance speech now.

Cheese Weasel Day

     Yes, every April 3rd is Cheese Weasel Day, the day when the Cheese Weasel leaves a slice of processed cheese food under the keyboards or the mouse of every good tech-geek and IT worker. So Tech Futurists everywhere, I hope you’ve been good boys and girls, because the Cheese Weasel is coming to town!

 To get you in the mood, you absolutely have to listen to the Cheese Weasel Day song!

Image: sylvar (Flickr)

The Future of Baseball

     Here is a link to a new article by Chicago Tribune sports writer David Haugh on the future of baseball, just in time for the Cubbies 100th anniversary of winning a World Series. Several APF members were quoted, and I also had some email conversation with the writer on this subject while he was preparing the article. Oh well, no quote this time. But I concur with some of the points made, and the article is an entertaining look at future possibilities and how those scenarios are connected to the past and also impact the present.

Image: Chris Brown (Flickr)

One More Week!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I have one week left in my graduate degree program! I know, I could have waited to blog about this next week when I publicly thank everyone that helped me get through and contributed to my learning experience. Hey, cut me some slack, I’m excited - and it’s been a long journey, but well worth every minute! I will definitely miss being in this great program with all of my classmates and professors, but also look forward to the next step. On to graduation, May 9th and 10th in Virginia Beach!

If you are interested in what a Masters degree in Strategic Foresight can do for you, click here.

Disappearing Bat Population: Another Post at ChangeWaves

      I know that I need to post an original article on my own blog, but time is extremely limited these days. For now, check out another post that I contributed to the ChangeWaves blog. This one deals with the disappearing bat population in many of the northeastern states in the U.S. The more that we negatively impact the environmental ecosystems, the more we are forced to deal with unforseen consequences that threaten life as we know it. Of course, we then have to attempt to find a solution to the new problem…

Renewable Energy: You Won’t Find It Here.

Well, at least not this time. But you can find it at ChangeWaves, the blog of Social Technologies.

I have had the privilege of interning with this futurist firm since January, and I recently wrote a post on “Wave Conversion Energy” that was published last week. Yes, a little shameless promotion, but you should definitely check out some of the other posts on the blog as well. Top flight!

Stimulus: Missing the Opportunity for Long-Term Positive Change?

     This from a PRNewswire article on the recently passed stimulus package:

“Congress missed a golden opportunity to invest in sustainable prosperity last week when it failed to fund a “Clean Energy” (or “Green Jobs”) Corps as part of its short-term stimulus package. The Clean Energy Corps would put America to work on real climate and energy solutions, providing job opportunities to young and poor Americans in renewable energy, energy efficiency and weatherization projects. Many policy makers and economic experts expect that a larger, more long-term economic stimulus package will be necessary later this year… Clean energy jobs will strengthen the economy, make America more energy independent and ease the harm of global warming. Plus, clean energy jobs would help less-advantaged Americans join the growing economy of the future.”

Now, besides the fact that,

a.)    Giving tax-paying Americans a little extra money to spend on material goods will not bring lasting stimulus to the U.S. economy any more than if your employer gave all of the company’s employees a small one-time bonus in an attempt to move the company into a global market status, and

b.)    America desperately needs to invest in initiatives that promote the creation of renewable energy and climate disruption,

I want to point out the real solution for long-term economic recovery, prosperity, and sustainability – creating an environment of innovation! As Hidalgo and Albors noted,  

“Innovation is something of a buzzword. As it is now perceived as central to achievement in the business climate of the 21st century, organizations, large and small, have begun to re-evaluate their products, their services and their operations in an attempt to develop a culture of innovation. This re-examination of organizational purpose is due to the recognition that developing a culture of innovation within the organization is the best insurance an organizationcan have of (relative) longevity in an environment of fast-moving markets. It is also the best guarantor, even though nothing is guaranteed, of long-term survival in today’s knowledge-driven economy… The knowledge economy can be said to be based on an efficient system of distribution and access to knowledge as a sine qua non condition for increasing the amount of innovative opportunities… The OECD (1996) defines knowledge-based economies as ‘economies which are directly based on the production, distribution and use of knowledge and information.’ It is not simply about pushing back the frontiers of knowledge; it is also about the more effective use and exploitation of all types of knowledge within all manners of economic activity… The increasing importance of knowledge is changing the way firms compete and the sources of comparative advantage between countries. For countries in the forefront of the world economy, it is a reality that the balance between knowledge and tangible resources has shifted so far toward the former and that knowledge has become perhaps the most important factor determining the standard of living (World Bank, 1998).”

Since we know that creating a culture of innovation within social, environmental, and industrial contexts is crucial to establishing long-term economic sustainability and prosperity – an atmosphere that promotes solutions for other dilemmas such as economic disparity, racial division, knowledge worker shortages, energy crisis, etc. – why is it that our best answer to an economic downturn comes in the form of “quick fixes” and short-term policies? Individuals, businesses, and countries must develop a “future-oriented” and long-term view that weaves systemic and structural thinking into their political, economic, and social psyche if they want any kind of future at all, both individually and from a global perspective. 

References: 

Hidalgo, A. & Albors, A. (2008, March). Innovation management techniques and tools: a review from theory and practice. R&D Management, 38(2), 113. Retrieved on March 1^st, 2008 from Proquest.  

“Green job corps” expected to return as part of long-term economic stimulus.” http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/green-job-corps-expected-return-longterm-economic-stimulus_476295_1.html

Image: Kevin Dooley (Flickr)